When an ice cube melts on the bottom of a glass, the water spreads evenly all the way around. Until now, scientists used the same principle to predict how sea level will increase in response to melting ice sheets. But in the Feb. 6 Science, geophysicist Jerry Mitrovica of the University of Toronto and colleagues report a new model for predicting the effects of the melting of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.

Instead of a uniform worldwide increase in sea level, the researchers contend, melt water will be unequally distributed, with some regions (depicted in dark blue) experiencing an increase of 30 percent more than the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s previous estimates. “For Washington D.C., we predict a sea level rise 1.3 meters higher than previously thought,” Mitrovica says. Sea levels in other regions (shown in yellow, orange and red) would increase less than previously predicted.

The new model takes several factors into account; one is the gravitational attraction exerted by the ice sheet on nearby ocean waters. As the ice sheet melts, this pull dissipates and water flows away from the area. “The perception that sea level rise is uniform globally could lead to gross underestimates of coastal retreat and inundation,” comments Virginia Burkett, a coastal ecologist with the U.S. Geological Survey’s National Wetlands Research Center in Lafayette, La. — Solmaz Barazesh Credit: IMAGE Courtesy of Science/AAAS

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Found in: Climate Change, Earth and Earth Science