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Science academies call for climate action
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By Janet Raloff

Web edition: June 10, 2008

Our National Academy of Sciences and its counterparts in a dozen other nations issued a joint statement today calling on world leaders to “to limit the threat of climate change” by weaning themselves off of their dependence on fossil fuels. They also called for a move to sustainable resource use – which, as we all know, would not include the continued full-throttle mining of finite, millions-of-years-old coal, oil, and natural gas.

The academies that issued the request for action are known as the G8 (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States) plus 5 (the largest developing countries: China, India, Brazil, Mexico, and South Africa). These science academies represent some nations that do not yet work together on discussing, much less tackling, climate change.

One might argue that their message is just another “duh” moment. Who doesn’t think that we should live within our means, that we should stop warming a planet that is already suffering from a low-grade fever, and that we should make a transition to less polluting fuels? In fact, what makes this succinct, two-page statement interesting, I believe, is that it doesn’t just tell us to conserve and bite the bullet, but that it also essentially implores governments to invest in research with an eye to the long view – at the same time studying what can reasonably be attacked now.

For instance, it urges all countries to:

– improve not only their predictions of climate-change repercussions at global, national and local levels, but also to begin exploring means for affordably adapting to those repercussions at all government levels

– develop incentives to get their populations to move toward less-carbon-intensive fuels

– target research into greenhouse-gas-reduction strategies and -energy technologies

– and support the G8+5 governments to – no later than next year – to set a timetable, to commit the funding, and to coordinate plans for building a significant number of demonstration plants to capture, store, and sequester carbon.

The new statement also argues that research could point the way towards developing a stable climate via such things as reforestation and “geoengineering technologies.” Such measures “would complement our greenhouse gas reduction strategies,” it said.

The document didn’t spell out what those geoengineering measures might be, so I asked for clarification from Michael Clegg, Foreign Secretary of the NAS, here in Washington.

“These are essentially engineering approaches to soaking up carbon dioxide,” he explains. “One suggestion that has been made in the past, for example, is the so-called fertilization of the oceans with iron. But none of this has been looked at very carefully from a scientific perspective,” he notes. “So what the statement commits is to organize a conference to look more carefully at some of these possibilities to see whether they’re plausible – whether any of them offer solutions.”

Such a conference could occur within the next 18 months, Clegg says, although he adds that no actual dates have been discussed.

The timing of the new statement by the academies is not random. It’s one of a series that have been developed, starting in 2004, to help shape discussions at the summer meeting of the G8 powers.

I asked what the new short document was likely to achieve that, for instance, the recent book-length tomes by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change have not. “This basically complements the IPCC work, which is actually cited in the document,” he said. Since catalyzing action sometimes requires years of persistent and consistent prodding, he said it’s important to keep such pivotal issues “in front of the global community.”

In fact, he notes, the current document “is kind of a continuation of the effort that we’ve made over the last four years in these G8 academies statements.” The 2004 statement focused on climate issues, and the one a year later argued that climate change not only was occurring but also could be attributed mostly to human activities. Last year, the academies’ G8 statement noted that “Our present energy course is not sustainable,” so cleaner fuels should be introduced.

“In the past,” Clegg adds, “these statements by the G8-plus-5 academies have actually gotten some serious treatment in the governmental discussions at the G8 meetings. And some of the text has ended up in the last year or two in the G8 communiqués.”

By the way, you might have noticed that my blogs have had a lot of climate entries lately. Believe me, I’m not seeking them out. They’re just raining down on me. Climate seems to be the topic of the season, if not the year or even the century.

The good news, if there can be good news in what seems to be cascading climate catastrophes, is that countries seem to be reluctantly acknowledging that action, even if costly, must begin imminently. The questions now are: What type of actions should we consider, how should we budget for them, how far will existing technologies get us, and how aggressively do we have to invest in research on next-gen technologies?

So, expect to see plenty more climate entries. This is where the action is and likely will remain throughout the foreseeable future.

Comment
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Joint Science Academies’ Statement: Climate Change Adaptation and the Transition to a Low Carbon Society. 2008 (June 10): 2 pp. [Go to]

Comments (10)

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  • Do real scientists really believe that we have an impact on the climate? There is a pretty hot ball of heat in the sky that is engine for our weather system. I'm sure we have a small impact on the ecology, however, I doubt any of the measures most are putting forth would put any dent in the cyclical climate change we are now experiencing.
    ARichter ARichter
    Jun. 10, 2008 at 3:08pm
  • ARichter, it has been repeatedly stated that there is an agreement among the vast majority of climate scientists that the extensive data available supports that a) global warming is occurring and b) the main contributing factor is anthropogenic greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide. This assertion is so well supported by the data that it is beyond reasonable doubt. Scientists of other opinions are currently in a minority.
    Michael Strack Michael Strack
    Jun. 10, 2008 at 10:02pm
  • It seems odd to me that a June 2008 document refers to global temperatures from 1906 to 2005. At least four sources of global temperatures supply monthly data just days into each new month. The joint statement says that temperatures increased 0.74C in that period.
    http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/2008/06/06/ has a graph from data that reports the global anomaly recently has been:
    Jan 2005: 0.489
    Dec 2005: 0.225
    May 2008: -0.083
    The reference is the average from 1979 through 1998.
    So, much of the report temperature increase has been reversed despite increasing CO2. While this may be short term noise, the recent shift in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and drawn out end of solar cycle 23 are the more likely causes and may be a harbinger of a still cooler climate to come.
    Then again, yesterday saw the hottest day in New Hampshire in my 4.6 year record. However, Idaho got a foot of snow. Interesting times.
    Ric Werme Ric Werme
    Jun. 11, 2008 at 7:22am
  • It's a cinch that even if everyone used CFL's (compact fluorescent lamps), drove Hybrid or electric cars, limited driving to the absolutely necessary, recycled cans, and drank tap water instead of bottled, there would not be much impact on global warming. Unless and until we replace the burning of coal and gas with nuclear, hydro wind and solar to generate electricity, not much will change.

    Paul Baker
    Paul Baker Paul Baker
    Jun. 11, 2008 at 7:54pm
  • The chairman of the IPCC and the chairman of the WMO have both acknowledged that global warming ended in 1998. The chairman of the WMO acknowledged that the planet cooled by .6C btwn Jan07 and Jan08. The repeatedly stated agreement among IPCC report reviewers, some 2500 scientists, was never true. Some of them did not agree, especially with the short version for the press and many of them have since dissented as the reality of the end of global warming in '98 became obvious. We are now being subjected to lying propaganda of the purest ray sublime.
    ART DAY ART DAY
    Jun. 12, 2008 at 11:07pm
  • This coalition is just one small step in the right direction. Much, much more public education must be performed by the scientific community throughout the world to transform all educational systems into producing a worldwide passion to save our environment. Scientists around the world must become more involved and visible communicating science to a worldwide audience at unprecedented levels today.
    Anthony  St. John Anthony St. John
    Jun. 13, 2008 at 4:54am
  • From a well-known scientific institution based in Washington, DC:

    "In 1941, astronomer [Milutin] Milankovitch proposed that regular variations in the Earth's orbit and axis may cause significant climate changes. Variations in distance from the Sun, and the tilt of the Earth's axis, affect distribution of the Sun's radiation on the Earth's surface. These astronomic variations are periodic and result in predictable changes in the amount of solar heat reaching critical regions of the Earth's climatic system. Although it does not explain the long-term cooling leading up to an ice age, this theory has received support from sea core studies showing short-term (10,000 to 100,000 years) ocean cooling cycles which conform roughly with those predicted by Milankovitch."
    ...
    "Recent cycles of climatic change in the past 800 years are shown ... by analysis of isotopic changes in the upper part of the [sea] core. Recurrent 60- and 180-year cycles are evident. These cycles continue over even longer records for the past 2,000 years and agree closely with periods of sunspot activity. This suggests that recent short-term climatic changes may be related to cyclical changes in solar activity.

    "Based on the regularity of climatic cycles, for the past 800 years, the projected curve for the next 75 years forecasts continued cooling through the 1980s, warming by 2015, and cooling again by 2030 through 2050."

    Mr. Strack, a majority of scientists (which, to my understanding, is not "vast," and is largely made up of those dependent on government funding) stating (without conclusive evidence) that global warming (such as it is) is due principally to carbon dioxide production by human activity doesn't make it so. Need we review the countless times in the past when "vast" scientific consensus was proven wrong?

    Kindly consider this "alternative" premise. Suppose you, as an investor, knew that GM's stock would go down all year long this year, and then go up all year long next year. Wouldn't you short GM's stock this year and then invest in it next year? Now suppose you, as a huckster politician, knew (by virtue of studies such as those referred to above) that global temperatures were going to go down for the next 30 years and then up for the following 30 years. Wouldn't you find some elaborate excuse to tax people for the temperature going down, and then, 30 years later, come up with some other equally bogus excuse to tax them for the temperature going up? When "global cooling" was the scare tactic of the day back in the late '70s and early '80s, our beloved government was pitching a tax plan for setting aside massive amounts of food assets to make up for the crop failures that a "vast majority" of scientists knew were sure to come. Today, now that we've moved into the warming phase of this natural cycle, our beloved government has come up with another tax scheme to take our money and do with it what they, in their proven wisdom, "know" is right.

    We would do better to produce oil here in the United States and ship it to refineries situated here through energy-efficient pipelines than to waste energy -- and produce excess CO2 -- by shipping oil in tankers halfway around the world. But our government is preventing us from doing that.

    We also would do better to take the money that scientists want us to spend on their studies and buy trees, plant them, and ultimately "sequester"* CO2 that way. But instead our government makes us spend money on ethanol production, which promotes clearing of treed land in favor of grains and grasses, and which reduces engine fuel efficiency by over 20 percent relative to gasoline; and, so far, has had little or no net effect (over its life-cycle) in reducing CO2 emissions (while increasing NOx emissions). We've been told that our salvation was in corn, but now -- no, wait... it's in sugar beets -- no, wait... biodiesel -- no, wait... switch grass -- no, wait... corn stover -- no, wait... waste biomass... no, wait...

    Lutron Corporation has made lighting dimmers since 1961. By improving lighting efficiency and reducing lighting energy consumption, they estimate they have saved billions of kiloWatt-hours of energy ( [Link was removed] ). (As an electrical engineer, I believe their figures because I understand how they've done it.) They've also managed to help consumers (taxpayers) save money. These "win-win" benefits came from independent technical innovation and commercial product development. If the scientists who issued the subject proclamation were to devote their "vast" intelligence toward more efficient motors, lighting, and means of energy production, then not only would we have less carbon dioxide (not that that really matters), but they would get rich as well.

    As it is, when it comes to global warming, our government and its attendant agencies and academies seem principally qualified to produce "vast" quantities of over-priced horse manure -- which, as we have been told, yields the greenhouse gas, methane. And methane, as you may not remember, was what the members of the "back to nature" movement of the '70s told us was the obvious choice for our country's energy needs back then. I'm looking forward to learning what people who know little or nothing about engineering and efficiency tell us we should do next, though I fear their subsequent proposals will amount to little more than reducing carbon emissions by means of exterminating carefully selected segments of the human population. Considering the history of centralized, collective governments elsewhere around the world, I expect that such proposals would be well-received by certain members of our Congress, and that there would also be a suitably "vast" number of scientists (much as there were in Nazi Germany) who would produce the appropriate studies to justify the enabling legislation to the well-intentioned but gullible, government-educated public.

    * - what an utterly pretentious term!
    P. Toll P. Toll
    Jun. 13, 2008 at 1:21pm
  • P. Toll: With regard to your “dependent on government funding” statement, the root cause of the failed culture in our academic and scientific institutions was exposed by President Eisenhower in his 1961 Farewell Address to the Nation: “The prospect of domination of the nation's scholars by Federal employment, project allocations, and the power of money is ever present – and is gravely to be regarded.”

    You have provided another case study on the failed credibility of the academic and scientific communities, which have sold out far too often to government welfare, and/or war and fossil fuel interests for profit regardless of negative consequences to the human race. UC National Labs are a worst-case scenario example.

    If there really is a global warming problem, we are most certainly screwed.

    Anthony  St. John Anthony St. John
    Jun. 13, 2008 at 2:37pm
  • The "vast majority" of climate "scientists" are funded with taxes. Therefore, the "vast majority" of these people are not to be trusted when they make political statements calling for more funding of climate research.

    If anthropogenic climate warming data were so clear, then there wouldn't be even a small minority of "real scientists" who disagree. I'm a "real scientist" and I've read some of Hansen's papers (he's the NASA guy who's beating the global warming drum). They are not convincing. They struggle to even meet the definition of "science" in my opinion.
    Fronda Longleaf Fronda Longleaf
    Jul. 13, 2008 at 8:54pm

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    m9bnat m9bnat m9bnat m9bnat
    Jan. 7, 2010 at 7:43am
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