Web edition: April 16, 2012
Even as global temperatures have been climbing throughout much of the past century, atypical warm and cool spells have seesawed regionally around the planet. March 2012 exemplified such exaggerated trends. Although the month set some 15,000 daily warming records in the United States, globally this past March was the coolest since 1999. The National Climatic Data Center reported these trend data April 16.
March’s planetary average of 13.2° Celsius still points to a steadily climbing planetary fever. That value was roughly 0.5 °C higher than the 20th century March average. And seven of the eight warmest years on record have occurred since 2001, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration notes. The top 10: all since 1995.
The combined land-and-sea-surface average temperature for January through March 2012 was 0.39 °C above the 20th century average. That matched 1991 as the 21st warmest such quarter on record — and the coolest since 1996.
Polar ice rallied somewhat this year. March’s Arctic sea ice cover was the largest for this month since 2008 (and only the ninth lowest since satellite records began in 1979). In Antarctica, sea ice during March was 16 percent higher than the average and fourth largest for the month since 1979.
All of that is small comfort for me today. Normally, this time of year the temperature peaks in Washington, D.C., at a balmy 19.4 °C (67 °F). But today’s forecast calls for a blistering 30° (or 86 °F) outdoors. Even with shades drawn, the morning temperature in my sun-facing fourth floor office was distinctly uncomfortable. And without supplemental cooling (my A/C is out of service), the temp at my desk can be expected to exceed the outdoor heat by some 3° to 5°.
Citations
National Climatic Data Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. State of the Climate Summary Information, March 2012. [Go to]
National Climatic Data Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Global Warming: Frequently Asked Questions. [Go to]
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"And seven of the eight warmest years on record have occurred since 2001,"
While I normally rely on the UAH satellite record, when the University of East Anglia released their 2011 surface temperature data, I sorted their 20 warmest years in a reponse to someone who often claims "9 out of the 10 warmest years on instrument record have occurred since 1998". While recent years have been warm, the data suggests that we're at a plateau and may start cooling. ‘*’ marks the last 10 years, ** marks the last 5:
1994 0.333
1991 0.343
1988 0.348
2000 0.361
1990 0.431
1997 0.463
1995 0.468
1999 0.489
2008 0.528 * **
2011 0.536 * **
2001 0.552
2004 0.611 *
2009 0.642 * **
2003 0.646 *
2002 0.664 *
2006 0.669 *
2007 0.678 * **
2010 0.713 * **
2005 0.747 *
1998 0.820
So, only eight of the last ten years now are in the top 10 and two of the last five years are in the top five. Various recent events may suggest a cooling trend - the negative PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation(, the week sun spot cycle, etc. Future events suggest more cooling - the AMO (Atlantic Multidecal Oscillation) should flip negative in a few years, sun spots may fade from view due to weakening magnetics on the Sun, and a new 2,500 year Tibetan tree ring study has retrospectively suggested that 2006 was the warm point and that there will be cooling to 2068 or so.
Just recently, in an interview with MSNBC, James Lovelock partly repudiated his position on climate change. He argues that it is still going on, but believes now that it is moving forward at a much slower rate than he had previously predicted. Janet, I'd be interested to see your commentary on that aspect. How do Lovelock's claims stack up against the data?
The Tibetan tree ring study was published in the peer-reviewed journal Chinese Science Bulletin (published by Wiley) in October 2011. The citation is as follows:
Amplitudes, rates, periodicities and causes of temperature variations in the past 2485 years and future trends over the central-eastern Tibetan Plateau, Chinese Sci Bull (October 2011), 56(28-29), 2986-2994.
The journal is open access, meaning anyone can download it and read it.
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