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No vacancy around stars
Planets pack tightly in the Milky Way
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Planets pack tightly in the Milky Way

By Andrew Grant

Web edition: March 6, 2013
Print edition: April 6, 2013; Vol.183 #7 (p. 12)

Planetary systems in our galaxy are packed to the brim, according to a new study — throw in another orb and all hell will break loose. The study, posted February 28 at arXiv.org, argues that planets around other stars share an evolutionary history similar to that of the solar system’s eight planets.

“This study supports results that have been building for a long time,” says Jack Lissauer, a space scientist at NASA Ames Research Center in Moffett Field, Calif., who was not involved in the study. In 2011, he discovered Kepler-11, a star with planets so tightly packed around it that five of them have smaller orbits than Mercury’s.

About 25 years ago, astrophysicists examining the solar system’s planets realized that their orbits teeter on the edge of instability. Add another world, and the eight planets would start pulling each other into new, unstable orbits; some would ultimately collide or get tossed out into interstellar space.

In other words, our solar system is filled to capacity.

Scientists believe this state of affairs is the result of a game of planetary pinball that occurred soon after the sun formed 4.5 billion years ago. Swirling dust and gas coalesced into many miniature planets that were so close together that they constantly grappled for position. After countless collisions, migrations and ejections, only the eight planets remained, spaced just far enough apart to leave each other alone but close enough together that no other planets would fit.

So when astronomers started discovering planets around other stars in the mid 1990s, scientists wondered whether faraway planetary systems had any vacancies. Astronomers Julia Fang and Jean-Luc Margot at UCLA decided to test the idea with the help of recent exoplanet discoveries by NASA’s Kepler space telescope.

Fang and Margot simulated millions of solar systems and then adjusted the spacing between planets based on the actual orbits of worlds detected by Kepler. The average spacing between neighboring planets in the simulated systems turned out to be very similar to the spacing among the eight planets around our sun.

The researchers then tested each simulated star system’s stability by tacking on a hypothetical extra planet and running the simulation forward in time by hundreds of millions of years. Around many stars, the planets jostled until multiple worlds collided or a giant planet flung a smaller one out of the system. Fang and Margot concluded that at least one-third of three-planet systems and 45 percent of four-planet systems are crammed.

“Our work illustrates something fundamental about the formation and evolution of planetary systems,” Margot says.

Fang warns that most of the planets that Kepler found orbit their stars closely, so the results may change when Kepler finds planets farther out. And Lissauer notes that other telescopes have found a handful of giant planets in long orbits around their stars; those systems may have room for additional worlds, he says.

Despite this caveat, Margot says these early results give perspective to the thousands of likely planets discovered over the last two decades. Astronomers have found plenty of oddballs, such as Jupiter-sized gas giants baking in orbits shorter than one Earth day and planets made primarily of diamond. But some deep-seated characteristics appear to hold true across a wide variety of planetary populations.

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J. Fang, J.-L. Margot. Are planetary systems filled to capacity? A study based on Kepler results. arXiv:1302.7190. Posted February 28, 2013. [Go to]

J. Fang, J.-L. Margot. Are planetary systems filled to capacity? A study based on Kepler results. arXiv:1302.7190. Posted February 28, 2013. [Go to]


L. Grossman. Saving the Earth with dynamical simulations. Science News Online. January 8, 2010. [Go to]

N. Drake. Planetary Peekaboo. Science News. Vol. 182, September 22, 2012, p. 26. Available online: [Go to]

Comments (9)

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  • It's all common sense. However, not to religious freaks.

    But one thing will prevent mankind probably from making contact with another intelligent species--the timeline bubble.

    What's that?

    Our Galaxy like many others has been around for about 12 -13 billion or more years. And during that time the Sun has for the last 5 billion years been relatively constant so that life on Earth could develop and flourish. The same holds true for other intelligent species.

    But the bubble is that few of these species exist on the same timeline at a time in which their intelligence over laps--e.g., that time in which they developed enough smarts to invent radio, radar and all those things we take for granted.

    Thus if humans are here in the last 100 years capable of doing that and were 4.5 billion years since the Earth was formed, then another species nearby--say a couple thousand light years or less--might have developed to the same or higher point of intelligence at a different time--say 3.5 billion years ago they reached the point were at. And this race may have flourished for millions of years but still almost a billion years before our time. But space is a hazardous place and a huge Super Nova nearby wiped them out completely.

    And so we stand alone because not only the immense distances but the immense timeline since the Universe was formed over 14 billion years ago. That makes it difficult for any two species to interact over the vast distances AND timelines.

    Few if any species bubbles overlap that's the problem and why will probably be alone for millions if not billions of years despite the high number of planets out there.

    Remember the dino's went that way. They may have evolved into something intelligent millions of years ago and contracted a species that lived in nearby space but oops along came a Comet and bye bye dino's.

    That's going to be our problem too.
    Vincent Wolf Vincent Wolf
    Mar. 7, 2013 at 9:17am
  • Nine.
    Johnay Johnay
    Mar. 7, 2013 at 9:17am
  • If this is the case, then given that Kepler detects some portion of the planetary population around a star, can other probable planetary orbits (presuming the system is full up) be inferred, and the probability of a habitable zone planet be calculated? Then might this direct future searches to those stars most likely to have habitable planets?
    Mark Mark
    Mar. 7, 2013 at 9:17am
  • I agree with Vincent Wolf's "timeline" argument, except that the truly interesting species are going to be the ones that survive and evolve over more than a billion years--maybe they were advanced enough to see the comet coming and blow it out of the sky, so they dodged that extinction event.
    There are so many stars, and every star has planets, so there will be so many chances for life to evolve, so there will be so many chances for it to reach the stage where it can survive an extinction event... that's the optimistic point of view.
    After all that, there may be only a handful of species in the galaxy that survive long enough to cross the "timeline" and contact us. On the other hand, being survivors, they may not wish to contact us for fear we will wipe them out. Interesting questions.
    Conrad Seitz Conrad Seitz
    Mar. 10, 2013 at 7:40pm
  • If Fang and Margot's result holds up, it seems plausible
    that they are tapping into something analogous to an
    action principle, governing new solar systems, where
    in some sense all (or almost all) orbitals tend to be
    occupied, roughly similar to the stacking up of electron
    orbitals in most atoms/ions, following quantum stats.
    Ie: throw in an extra electron, and things briefly go
    to hell, until a new stable distribution settles in.

    In new-aborning planetary systems, possibly via
    equipartition mechanisms, the overall result is:
    the local stable distribution is at the limits of
    what 'the traffic can bear'.
    Gene Partlow Gene Partlow
    Mar. 10, 2013 at 7:40pm
  • There may be some kind of life out there but it may be only plant life but we may find some life out there but we just don't have the tech now how to find it yet but maybe some day.
    kalieb watson kalieb watson
    Mar. 12, 2013 at 10:27am
  • I agree with the timeline bubble , but in a very different way. I think that there is a very short period of time when a civilisation would be INTERESTED to contact us. Once they become a few hundred years (thousands?) years more advanced than us, they would never contact us, as we would very probable not contact nandhertals. Add that to the fact that a very different highly advanced capacity might develop instead of intelligence and then restrain the evolution of intellect (like a very advanced sense that would put that species at the top , think dolphins) , and to the fact that intelligence does not imply tech and then we're pretty alone.
    Rares  Dedu Rares Dedu
    Mar. 20, 2013 at 2:55pm
  • @RaresDedu: agreed, for fermi paradox / drake equation, wrt. contact the time period of interest is the time period where some other civilization might be interested in communication, at about our level of technology. but given the premise that some civilizations then go on instead of terminating, should we not see their handiwork in the sky? industrial capability increases exponentially.
    alfps alfps
    Mar. 24, 2013 at 1:15am
  • Re the intelligent life: beside the the vastness of spacetime, there might also be a problem of overlapping intelligence. I can observe and amoeba, but it can't observe me. I can also observe an ant and while it might sense something, it can't conceptualize what I am.

    Likewise any potential intelligent life out there. It could be staring us in the face and we can't recognize or conceptualize it.
    jahtez  jahtez
    Apr. 10, 2013 at 7:15pm
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