Web edition: March 6, 2013
Print edition: April 6, 2013; Vol.183 #7 (p. 12)
Planetary systems in our galaxy are packed to the brim, according to a new study — throw in another orb and all hell will break loose. The study, posted February 28 at arXiv.org, argues that planets around other stars share an evolutionary history similar to that of the solar system’s eight planets.
“This study supports results that have been building for a long time,” says Jack Lissauer, a space scientist at NASA Ames Research Center in Moffett Field, Calif., who was not involved in the study. In 2011, he discovered Kepler-11, a star with planets so tightly packed around it that five of them have smaller orbits than Mercury’s.
About 25 years ago, astrophysicists examining the solar system’s planets realized that their orbits teeter on the edge of instability. Add another world, and the eight planets would start pulling each other into new, unstable orbits; some would ultimately collide or get tossed out into interstellar space.
In other words, our solar system is filled to capacity.
Scientists believe this state of affairs is the result of a game of planetary pinball that occurred soon after the sun formed 4.5 billion years ago. Swirling dust and gas coalesced into many miniature planets that were so close together that they constantly grappled for position. After countless collisions, migrations and ejections, only the eight planets remained, spaced just far enough apart to leave each other alone but close enough together that no other planets would fit.
So when astronomers started discovering planets around other stars in the mid 1990s, scientists wondered whether faraway planetary systems had any vacancies. Astronomers Julia Fang and Jean-Luc Margot at UCLA decided to test the idea with the help of recent exoplanet discoveries by NASA’s Kepler space telescope.
Fang and Margot simulated millions of solar systems and then adjusted the spacing between planets based on the actual orbits of worlds detected by Kepler. The average spacing between neighboring planets in the simulated systems turned out to be very similar to the spacing among the eight planets around our sun.
The researchers then tested each simulated star system’s stability by tacking on a hypothetical extra planet and running the simulation forward in time by hundreds of millions of years. Around many stars, the planets jostled until multiple worlds collided or a giant planet flung a smaller one out of the system. Fang and Margot concluded that at least one-third of three-planet systems and 45 percent of four-planet systems are crammed.
“Our work illustrates something fundamental about the formation and evolution of planetary systems,” Margot says.
Fang warns that most of the planets that Kepler found orbit their stars closely, so the results may change when Kepler finds planets farther out. And Lissauer notes that other telescopes have found a handful of giant planets in long orbits around their stars; those systems may have room for additional worlds, he says.
Despite this caveat, Margot says these early results give perspective to the thousands of likely planets discovered over the last two decades. Astronomers have found plenty of oddballs, such as Jupiter-sized gas giants baking in orbits shorter than one Earth day and planets made primarily of diamond. But some deep-seated characteristics appear to hold true across a wide variety of planetary populations.
Citations
J. Fang, J.-L. Margot. Are planetary systems filled to capacity? A study based on Kepler results. arXiv:1302.7190. Posted February 28, 2013. [Go to]
J. Fang, J.-L. Margot. Are planetary systems filled to capacity? A study based on Kepler results. arXiv:1302.7190. Posted February 28, 2013. [Go to]
Suggested Reading
L. Grossman. Saving the Earth with dynamical simulations. Science News Online. January 8, 2010. [Go to]
N. Drake. Planetary Peekaboo. Science News. Vol. 182, September 22, 2012, p. 26. Available online: [Go to]
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But one thing will prevent mankind probably from making contact with another intelligent species--the timeline bubble.
What's that?
Our Galaxy like many others has been around for about 12 -13 billion or more years. And during that time the Sun has for the last 5 billion years been relatively constant so that life on Earth could develop and flourish. The same holds true for other intelligent species.
But the bubble is that few of these species exist on the same timeline at a time in which their intelligence over laps--e.g., that time in which they developed enough smarts to invent radio, radar and all those things we take for granted.
Thus if humans are here in the last 100 years capable of doing that and were 4.5 billion years since the Earth was formed, then another species nearby--say a couple thousand light years or less--might have developed to the same or higher point of intelligence at a different time--say 3.5 billion years ago they reached the point were at. And this race may have flourished for millions of years but still almost a billion years before our time. But space is a hazardous place and a huge Super Nova nearby wiped them out completely.
And so we stand alone because not only the immense distances but the immense timeline since the Universe was formed over 14 billion years ago. That makes it difficult for any two species to interact over the vast distances AND timelines.
Few if any species bubbles overlap that's the problem and why will probably be alone for millions if not billions of years despite the high number of planets out there.
Remember the dino's went that way. They may have evolved into something intelligent millions of years ago and contracted a species that lived in nearby space but oops along came a Comet and bye bye dino's.
That's going to be our problem too.
There are so many stars, and every star has planets, so there will be so many chances for life to evolve, so there will be so many chances for it to reach the stage where it can survive an extinction event... that's the optimistic point of view.
After all that, there may be only a handful of species in the galaxy that survive long enough to cross the "timeline" and contact us. On the other hand, being survivors, they may not wish to contact us for fear we will wipe them out. Interesting questions.
that they are tapping into something analogous to an
action principle, governing new solar systems, where
in some sense all (or almost all) orbitals tend to be
occupied, roughly similar to the stacking up of electron
orbitals in most atoms/ions, following quantum stats.
Ie: throw in an extra electron, and things briefly go
to hell, until a new stable distribution settles in.
In new-aborning planetary systems, possibly via
equipartition mechanisms, the overall result is:
the local stable distribution is at the limits of
what 'the traffic can bear'.
Likewise any potential intelligent life out there. It could be staring us in the face and we can't recognize or conceptualize it.
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