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Dengue risk forecasted for soccer World Cup in Brazil

The highest risk for a dengue fever outbreak during the 2014 soccer World Cup is in the Brazilian cities of Recife, Fortaleza and Natal. The lowest risk is in Brasília, Cuiabá, Curitiba, Porto Alegre and São Paulo, according to a new early warning system.

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Twelve cities in Brazil are gearing up to host World Cup soccer games in just a few weeks, and part of that preparation includes preventing outbreaks of dengue fever. A new early warning system estimates that the risk of an outbreak is highest for the host cities of Recife, Fortaleza and Natal, researchers report May 17 in Lancet Infectious Diseases. A city is labeled high risk if more than 300 cases per 100,000 inhabitants are predicted in a month for a region.

The forecast, which provides warnings of dengue epidemics up to three months in advance, could help with planning intervention strategies to prevent outbreaks, the researchers write.

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