Afghanistan on 240 incidents a week

Computer simulation forecasts insurgent activity

By Rachel Ehrenberg, 15:16 PM July 16, 2012

A new advanced weapon may offer strategy guidance for the war in Afghanistan: math. Using secret U.S. military logs made public by WikiLeaks, scientists have created a mathematical simulation that may help predict the intensity and whereabouts of future insurgent activity.

The simulation also evaluates its own predictions, acknowledging that some events may be impossible to foresee. Such an approach might help decision makers better weigh their options, the researchers say online July 16 i...

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