Storm Front
Hurricane experts push to improve intensity forecasts
Anyone waiting for Hurricane Irene on North Carolina’s coast last August might have been a little disappointed. As the storm barreled toward the Outer Banks, parka-clad TV meteorologists lined the beaches in anticipation. But instead of grinding ashore as powerfully as expected, Irene wimped out, hitting land with wind speeds about 10 percent weaker than predicted.
Just as easily, hurricanes can do the opposite, strengthening when they’re not expected to. Take Charley, which jumped two categories on the hurricane scale in five hours before slamming into Florida in 2004. Or 2007’s Felix, which intensified quickly into a Category 5 storm, the highest possible, before devastating much of Nicaragua.
Why some storms spin up with deadly force and others putter along, or even weaken, remains something of a scientific mystery. And so hurricane forecasters have made this problem a top priority for the next decade.