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The new question format shows promise as a way to save civilian lives in war zones, says operations research professor Raimo Hämäläinen of Aalto University, Finland.
Keller and Katsikopoulos developed a decision tree based on a review of military literature and interviews with eight German military personnel who had experience manning checkpoints in Kosovo or fighting in Afghanistan. The tree has soldiers first ask whether an approaching vehicle contains more than one person. If so, it’s deemed safe. In 84 percent of cases, that question was enough to identify truly nonhostile vehicles.
The power of first checking a vehicle’s occupancy was reflected in the fact that all seven successful suicide attacks on NATO forces in Afghanistan during the study period involved single-person vehicles.
If a one-person vehicle is approaching, the tree’s next question asks whether that vehicle complies with requests to slow down or stop. If not, it’s labeled hostile. Otherwise, a final question asks whether “there are no further threat attributes,” such as an approaching car displaying a color or being of a make identified in intelligence reports as belonging to suicide attackers. If any such threats are seen, the car is treated as hostile.
The new tree isn’t perfect. It would have reduced civilian casualties for multiple-occupant vehicles – always deemed safe in the new formula – by 183. That’s how many were killed or injured by soldiers despite the fact that none of those vehicles contained attackers. On the negative side, while soldiers harmed 10 civilians in single-occupant, noncompliant vehicles, that figure would have reached 74 by using the decision tree, the researchers say.
During the time period analyzed, soldiers also harmed eight civilians in single-occupant, compliant vehicles and three of four civilians in single-occupant, compliant vehicles with threat features, making a total of 204 civilian casualties. The decision tree would have classified no one as hostile in the single-occupant, compliant vehicles and all four civilians as hostile in single-occupant, compliant vehicles with threat features, adding up to a total of 78 potential civilian casualties using the strategy.
Keller wants to see how the decision tree — which can be modified if attackers change tactics — works in real-world situations. “If this was a drug, it would be time to do a clinical trial,” he says.