This article reports that 223 out of 243 aircraft in the study produced contrails and that the researchers produced a model that predicts contrails correctly 92 percent of the time (but doesn’t predict their duration). Based on the article, I propose the simplest possible model: Always predict a contrail. You’ll be right 223/243 (92 percent) of the time.
John Gilbert Pasadena, Calif.
From the Nature Index
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