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An underwater volcano off Oregon didn’t erupt in 2025 after all. Why not?

Signs now point toward a 2026 eruption of the volcano on the Axial seamount

Equipment with bright lights sits on the seafloor in dark murky water, its lights trained on a hydrothermal vent rising up beside it.

A high-definition camera keeps watch on a hydrothermal vent called Mushroom in the caldera of Axial seamount, just off the coast of Oregon, under about 1,500 meters of water. The camera is just one of many instruments monitoring the volcano in hopes of finding patterns that might presage an eruption.

UW, NSF-OOI, CSSF

By Carolyn Gramling

NEW ORLEANS — One year ago, scientists made a surprisingly concrete prediction: Before 2025 was out, they said, Axial volcano — a submerged seamount near Oregon in the Northern Pacific Ocean — would erupt.