The final climate frontiers
Scientists aim to improve and localize their predictions
Modern explorers have pushed into nearly every nook and cranny of the globe, from polar Antarctica to the depths of the Amazonian jungle. Yet there’s land still to explore, and regularly comes news of unexpected and wondrous findings — a mongooselike carnivore spotted in Madagascar, a massive waterfall discovered in Peru.
Such is the state of climate science today. In some respects its territory has been thoroughly probed. Despite vigorous questioning of the premises and conclusions of research into climate change, reviews of the evidence consistently confirm the basic findings of the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: The Earth’s rising temperature cannot be explained by natural processes alone. Emissions of greenhouse gases from human activities, like burning fossil fuels, must be included to account for the observed warming. Policy makers will be building on this firm foundation during meetings in Cancun, Mexico, in late November and early December to hammer out the next global climate-control agreement.
But unexplored corners of global climate remain. The most recent IPCC report, from 2007, acknowledged this terra incognita: “There is still an incomplete physical understanding of many components of the climate system and their role in climate change.” Such unknowns are fertile territory for scientists.