When intuition and math probably look wrong

A twist on the Two Children Problem shows how information can steer what looks probable

I have two children, one of whom is a son born on a Tuesday. What is the probability that I have two boys?

WORKING IT OUT This grid gives a visual way of calculating the answer to the question, “Among families that have two children, one of whom is a boy born on a Tuesday, how many have two boys?” It shows all the possible variations of birth day and gender for children in a two-child family.