A wide variety of factors can influence the winning time of a race. For a given event over the course of a year, for example, the results may depend on the quality of the runners, the race location, weather conditions, and so on.
In a 1985 article in the Journal of the American Statistical Association, statisticians Peter Tryfos and Russell Blackmore of York University sought to forecast future record performances on the basis of observed past records in a given event.