Board an airplane and you can rest assured that it underwent rigorous safety testing before its first flight and, in fact, before it was even built. You can feel confident that engineering software searched across a vast range of design parameters to find the most aerodynamic shape, the sleekest wings, the sturdiest fuselage. Competing designs were “test-flown” in computer simulations to predict how they would perform in both friendly and turbulent skies.
Go into the hospital for open-heart surgery, however, and your doctor will have designed your treatment using a very different process. Most likely, the surgeon will have considered what treatments have worked best on patients with symptoms similar to yours and then used a combination of medical protocols and intuition to decide on your case. Doctors can estimate the risks and benefits of a procedure by looking at how well it has gone in the past, but they can’t guarantee the outcome in your particular case. Advanced diagnostic tools and new drugs notwithstanding, medicine remains what it has always been: an empirical science.